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Stephen S. Roach: US is facing double bubble trouble - property and credit bubbles peaked at 78% of GDP - 6 times the size of the tech bubble

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If the economy of the United States was entering a standard cyclical downturn, there would be good reason to believe that a timely counter-cyclical stimulus like that devised by Washington would be effective. But this is not a standard cyclical downturn. It is a post-bubble recession. The US is now going through its second post-bubble downturn in seven years. Yet this one stands in sharp contrast to the post-bubble shakeout in the stock market during 2000 and 2001. Back then, there was a collapse in business capital spending, a sector that peaked at only 13 percent of real gross domestic product. The current recession has been set off by the simultaneous bursting of property and credit bubbles. The unwinding of these excesses is likely to exact a lasting toll on both homebuilders and ...

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