Blog by a senior executive, retired from a public company, with a background in investing, finance and economics. This channel is automatically updated! http://myprops.org/channels/Calculated-Risk/ Sat, 21 Nov 2009 00:08:47 GMT http://backend.userland.com/rss RSS.NET: http://www.rssdotnet.com/ From the FDIC: Central Bank, Stillwater, Minnesota, Assumes All of the Deposits of Commerce Bank of Southwest Florida, Fort Myers, FloridaCommerce Bank of Southwest Florida, Fort Myers, Florida, was closed today by the Florida Office of Financial Regulation, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ... As of August 28, 2009, Commerce Bank of Southwest Florida had total assets of $79.7 million and total deposits of approximately $76.7 million. ... The ... http://myprops.org/content/Bank-Failure-124-in-2009-Commerce-Bank-of-Southwest-Florida-Fort-Myers-Florida/ Fri, 20 Nov 2009 22:29:09 GMT From Globe St.: Values Off 43% From 2007 Peak Prices nationwide have fallen 42.9% from their October 2007 peak, according to the latest Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Price Index report issued Thursday, while Real Capital Analytics says total transaction volume for 2009 will be the lowest of the decade. The November Moody's/REAL report ... covers transactions through Sept. 30 ... September's index represented a 3.9% value decline compared to August. ... "Further price declines are ... http://myprops.org/content/Moodys-CRE-Prices-Off-43-percent-from-Peak/ Fri, 20 Nov 2009 20:24:26 GMT Here is some national data on home buyer financing in October. This is from a survey by Campbell Communications (excerpted with permission) released today. Source: October Trends in Existing Home Sales, a presentation from Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance Monthly Survey on Real Estate Market Conditions. Thomas Popik, Campbell Surveys Research Director, highlighted several key trends from the survey in October: Investor Purchases of REO Are Declining First-Time Homebuyers Largely Support ... http://myprops.org/content/National-Survey-Data-on-Home-Buying-Financing/ Fri, 20 Nov 2009 19:08:23 GMT From Paul Krugman writing in the NY Times: The Big Squander During the bubble years, many financial companies created the illusion of financial soundness by buying credit-default swaps from A.I.G. - basically, insurance policies in which A.I.G. promised to make up the difference if borrowers defaulted on their debts. It was an illusion because the insurer didn't have remotely enough money to make good on its promises if things went bad. ... by the time A.I.G.'s hollowness became apparent, the ... http://myprops.org/content/Krugman-on-AIG/ Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:14:16 GMT From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary Twenty-nine states and the District of Columbia recorded over-the-month unemployment rate increases, 13 states registered rate decreases, and 8 states had no rate change, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the year, jobless rates increased in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. ... Michigan again recorded the highest unemployment rate among the states, 15.1 percent, in October. The states with ... http://myprops.org/content/Unemployment-Rate-Increases-in-29-States-in-October/ Fri, 20 Nov 2009 15:35:45 GMT From housing consultant Ivy Zelman commenting on the MBA Delinquency report in the NY Times U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies Reach a Record High"I've been pretty bearish on this big ugly pig stuck in the python and this cements my view that home prices are going back down."OK, a muddled metaphor alert, but the point is clear. From Bloomberg: Housing Recovery in U.S. Set Back to 2010 as Market Wanes "I don't think the housing crisis is over," Mark Zandi, chief economist with Moody's ... http://myprops.org/content/A-Few-House-Price-Forecasts/ Fri, 20 Nov 2009 14:35:58 GMT David Streitfeld at the NY Times adds some color: Easy Loans in Expensive Areas In January, Mike Rowland was so broke that he had to raid his retirement savings to move [to San Francisco] from Boston. A week ago, he and a couple of buddies bought a two-unit apartment building for nearly a million dollars. They had only a little cash to bring to the table but, with the federal government insuring the transaction, a large down payment was not necessary. "It was kind of crazy we could get ... http://myprops.org/content/More-on-FHA-Loans/ Fri, 20 Nov 2009 05:15:52 GMT There was some buzz earlier today about short term T bill rates turning slightly negative. This happened last year too, but for different reasons ... From the Financial Times: Short-term US interest rates turn negative Short-term US interest rates turned negative on Thursday as banks frantically stockpiled government securities in order to polish their balance sheets for the end of the year. ... The scramble has been exacerbated by the fact that all leading US banks ... will this year close ... http://myprops.org/content/On-Negative-T-Bills/ Fri, 20 Nov 2009 03:13:32 GMT Here is a scatter graph comparing the seriously delinquency rate for mortgage loans vs. unemployment rate for all states. The seriously delinquent rate include 90+ days delinquent loans, and loans in the foreclosure process for Q3 2009 (Source: MBA). Click on graph for larger image in new window. There is a relationship between delinquency rates and the unemployment rate. Florida really stands out because of state specific foreclosure laws. Arizona and Nevada also have higher than ... http://myprops.org/content/States-Seriously-Delinquent-Mortgages-vs.-Unemployment-Rate/ Fri, 20 Nov 2009 00:19:10 GMT Click on graph for larger image in new window. First, on the market ... This graph is from Doug Short of dshort.com (financial planner): "Four Bad Bears". Note that the Great Depression crash is based on the DOW; the three others are for the S&P 500. Reader Yuri asked me if the number of 30 day delinquencies is decreasing. He was curious if the overall number of delinquencies is increasing because of the loan modifications and other actions that are limiting the outflow ... http://myprops.org/content/Mortgage-Delinquencies-and-Foreclosures-by-Period-Past-Due/ Thu, 19 Nov 2009 21:38:08 GMT From HotelNewsNow.com: New Orleans leads ADR, RevPAR declines in STR weekly numbers Overall, in year-over-year measurements, the industry's occupancy fell 6.4 percent to end the week at 52.6 percent, ADR dropped 9.9 percent to US$95.86, and RevPAR decreased 15.7 percent to finish at US$50.47. Click on graph for larger image in new window. This graph shows the occupancy rate by week for each of the last four years (2006 through 2009 labeled by start of month). Notes: the scale doesn't start ... http://myprops.org/content/Hotel-RevPAR-off-15.7-Percent/ Thu, 19 Nov 2009 18:59:52 GMT On the MBA conference call concerning the "Q3 2009 National Delinquency Survey", MBA Chief Economist Jay Brinkmann said this morning: The problem is moving to prime loans, including fixed rate prime loans, and also FHA loans. "We are seeing the first hit on the weaker prime fixed borrowers." Remember the delinquency rate includes loans in modification (something to remember - especially for the 90 day delinquent loans). MBA expects unemployment rate to peak in Q1 or ... http://myprops.org/content/MBA-Forecasts-Foreclosures-to-Peak-in-2011/ Thu, 19 Nov 2009 16:35:08 GMT The MBA reports a record 14.4 percent of mortgage loans were either one payment delinquent or in the foreclosure process in Q3 2009. This is an increase from 13.2% in Q2 2009. From the MBA: Delinquencies Continue to Climb in Latest MBA National Delinquency Survey The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties rose to a seasonally adjusted rate of 9.64 percent of all loans outstanding as of the end of the third quarter of 2009, up 40 basis points from the ... http://myprops.org/content/MBA-Record-14.4-Percent-of-Mortgage-Loans-in-Foreclosure-or-Delinquent-in-Q3/ Thu, 19 Nov 2009 15:38:03 GMT The DOL reports on weekly unemployment insurance claims:In the week ending Nov. 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 505,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised figure of 505,000. [Revised from 502,000] The 4-week moving average was 514,000, a decrease of 6,500 from the previous week's revised average of 520,500. ... The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Nov. 7 was 5,611,000, a decrease of 39,000 from the ... http://myprops.org/content/Weekly-Initial-Unemployment-Claims-505000/ Thu, 19 Nov 2009 13:49:46 GMT This is a recurring theme: a bank fails, the Inspector General reviews the failure and discovers that the field examiners saw problems starting around 2002, and ... nothing happened for years. We saw this with the Federal Reserve and the failure of Riverside Bank of the Gulf Coast, and with the FDIC / OTS and the failure of IndyMac. Eric Dash at the NY Times has more: Pathology of a Crisis At bank after bank, the examiners are discovering that state and federal regulators knew lenders were ... http://myprops.org/content/The-Failure-of-Regulatory-Oversight/ Thu, 19 Nov 2009 03:58:52 GMT Another busy day and I skipped the MBA market index earlier ... note: The MBA Q3 delinquency report will be released tomorrow. The MBA reports: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyThe Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume decreased 2.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. ... The Refinance Index decreased 1.4 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4.7 percent from one ... http://myprops.org/content/MBA-Purchase-Applications-Fall-to-12-Year-Low/ Thu, 19 Nov 2009 01:51:53 GMT "It's déjà vu all over again". Yogi Berra From the LA Times: Jobless Benefits Set to Expire Unless Congress Acts About one million laid-off workers will see their unemployment benefits end in January ... The [recently] added federal benefits were built on a series of previous extensions that are slated to end on Dec. 31 ... According to projections released Wednesday by the National Employment Law Project, an advocacy group that worked with state officials to develop ... http://myprops.org/content/One-million-Workers-to-Exhaust-Unemployment-Benefits-in-January/ Wed, 18 Nov 2009 23:14:02 GMT After reading some of the commentary regarding the housing starts report this morning, it might be useful to reiterate these three points: Residential investment is the best leading indicator for the economy. Residential investment will not recover rapidly because of the large overhang of existing vacant housing units. Existing home sales are largely irrelevant for the economy. Residential investment is reported quarterly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) as part of the GDP ... http://myprops.org/content/Housing-Leads-the-Economy-Existing-Home-Sales-are-Irrelevant/ Wed, 18 Nov 2009 20:53:14 GMT From the BLS report on the Consumer Price Index this morning: The rent index decreased 0.1 percent, the index for owners' equivalent rent [OER] was unchanged ... The rent index decreased at a -1.3% annualized rate, and OER declined in three of four ranges (only the Northeast Urban Region saw an increase - see Cleveland Fed). The rent index and OER will probably continue to fall for some time, keeping CPI and core CPI low. Most of the reports of falling rents are focused on the coasts, but ... http://myprops.org/content/Falling-Rents-and-Minneapolis/ Wed, 18 Nov 2009 17:16:07 GMT From the American Institute of Architects : Index remains in negative category despite improvement Amidst a continued high level of inquiries for possible new projects, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) reached its highest mark since August 2008, just before the serious credit problems emerged in our economy. As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending. The ... http://myprops.org/content/AIA-Architecture-Billings-Index-Shows-Contraction/ Wed, 18 Nov 2009 14:57:40 GMT Click on graph for larger image in new window. Total housing starts were at 529 thousand (SAAR) in October, down 10.6% from the revised September rate, and up from the all time record low in April of 479 thousand (the lowest level since the Census Bureau began tracking housing starts in 1959). Starts had rebounded to 590 thousand in June, and have move sideways (or down) for five months. Single-family starts were at 476 thousand (SAAR) in October, down 6.8% from the revised September rate, ... http://myprops.org/content/Housing-Starts-Decline-Sharply-in-October/ Wed, 18 Nov 2009 14:15:25 GMT From the LA Times: California faces a projected deficit of $21 billion Less than four months after California leaders stitched together a patchwork budget, a projected deficit of nearly $21 billion already looms, according to a report to be released Wednesday by the state's chief budget analyst. The new figure -- the nonpartisan analyst's first projection for the coming budget year -- threatens to send Sacramento back into budgetary gridlock and force more across-the-board cuts in state ... http://myprops.org/content/California-Still-Faces-Large-Budget-Deficit/ Wed, 18 Nov 2009 05:17:09 GMT David Leonhardt writes in the NY Times: A Stimulus That Could Save Money White House officials are now looking at creating a new version of cash for clunkers - this time for home weatherization. ... [John] Doerr calls his proposal, which would give households money to pay for weatherization projects, "cash for caulkers."... The housing bust has idled contractors and construction workers, who could be put to work insulating homes and caulking air leaks. Many households, meanwhile, would save ... http://myprops.org/content/Cash-for-Caulkers/ Wed, 18 Nov 2009 03:10:33 GMT From the WaPo: House shifts focus to 'jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs' "It's jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs," Rep. John B. Larson (D-Conn.) ... said ... "Members of this caucus feel ... that a jobless recovery is just simply unacceptable to us." And Reuters list some possible items "under consideration": U.S. House plans jobs bill before year end * A transportation bill that could cost up to $500 billion * A tax credit for businesses that create jobs * Assistance to state ... http://myprops.org/content/The-Next-Stimulus-Jobs-jobs-jobs-jobs/ Wed, 18 Nov 2009 01:04:06 GMT Earlier I posted a graph on capacity utilization: Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization Increase Slightly in October Spencer at Angry Bear is tracking the recovery in industrial production compared to previous recessions.As the chart shows, this changes the impression the previous reports had given that this was a normal to strong recovery in industrial output to one that it is a weak recovery. Click on graph for larger image in new window. Graph from Spencer. It is too early to ... http://myprops.org/content/More-on-Industrial-Production/ Tue, 17 Nov 2009 22:52:48 GMT Click on graph for larger image in new window. This graph shows the builder confidence index from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). The housing market index (HMI) was at 17 in November. October was revised down from 18 to 17. The record low was 8 set in January. This is very low - and this is what I've expected - a long period of builder depression. Note: any number under 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. This second graph ... http://myprops.org/content/NAHB-Builder-Confidence-Flat-in-November/ Tue, 17 Nov 2009 18:19:02 GMT From Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker The Economic Outlook: Earlier this year some economists were highlighting the risk that the low level of economic activity could push the rate of inflation down, perhaps even below zero. I think the risk of a substantial further reduction in inflation has diminished substantially since then. The historical record suggests that the early years of a recovery is when the risk is greatest that confidence in the stability of inflation erodes and we see an ... http://myprops.org/content/Feds-Lacker-Fed-Cant-be-paralyzed-by-patches-of-lingering-weakness/ Tue, 17 Nov 2009 16:34:18 GMT From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production increased 0.1 percent in October ... Manufacturing production moved down 0.1 percent and the output of mines decreased 0.2 percent, but the index for utilities rose 1.6 percent. At 98.6 percent of its 2002 average, total industrial production was 7.1 percent below its level of a year earlier. Capacity utilization for total industry moved up 0.2 percentage point to 70.7 percent, a rate 10.2 percentage points below ... http://myprops.org/content/Industrial-Production-Capacity-Utilization-Increase-Slightly-in-October/ Tue, 17 Nov 2009 14:55:52 GMT TransUnion reports that the 60 day mortgage delinquency rate increased to a record 6.25% in Q3, from 5.81% in Q2. From TransUnion: Mortgage Loan Delinquency Rates on Course to Hit Record in 2009 Mortgage loan delinquency (the ratio of borrowers 60 or more days past due) increased for the 11th straight quarter, hitting an all-time national average high of 6.25 percent for the third quarter of 2009. This statistic is traditionally seen as a precursor to foreclosure and increased 7.57 percent ... http://myprops.org/content/Report-Record-Mortgage-Loan-Delinquency-Rates-in-Q3/ Tue, 17 Nov 2009 14:14:34 GMT Some late night entertainment from Merle Hazard (other hits include Inflation or Deflation?, Mark to Market and H-E-D-G-E) Note: Merle will be performing live at the annual convention of the American Economic Association, Sunday, January 3, 2010, 8 p.m. in Atlanta. http://myprops.org/content/Merle-Hazard-Give-me-that-Old-Time-Recession-648783/ Tue, 17 Nov 2009 05:11:41 GMT In June 2008, reader Brian sent me an email that started: "When the bankers are selecting color schemes, you know a project isn't going well"He was referring to Deutsche Bank foreclosing on the $3.5 billion Cosmopolitan Resort & Casino in Las Vegas. Bloomberg has an update: Deutsche Bank Drowning in Vegas on Costliest Bank-Owned Casino Deutsche Bank AG's Cosmopolitan Resort & Casino complex in Las Vegas, already the most expensive debacle in the city for a single lender, is ... http://myprops.org/content/Update-on-Las-Vegas-Cosmopolitan-Resort-Casino/ Tue, 17 Nov 2009 04:25:41 GMT In a report titled "Factors Affecting Efforts to Limit Payments to AIG Counterparties", Neil Barofsky, special inspector for TARP, wrote that the "negotiating strategy to pursue concessions from [AIG] counterparties offered little opportunity for success, even in the light of the willingness of one of the counterparty to agree to concessions". He also concluded that the "structure and effect of the FRBNY's assistance to AIG ... effectively transferred tens of billions ... http://myprops.org/content/TARP-Watchdog-AIG-Bailout-Transferred-Billions-from-Government-to-Counterparties/ Tue, 17 Nov 2009 00:21:20 GMT CNBC Headline: Meredith Whitney: I Haven't Been This Bearish in a Year; Look for Double-Dip Recession Next Year From American Banker: FDIC Speaks More Softly, Retains Stick The FDIC changed the name of its cease-and-desist order to the less ominous-sounding "consent order" (a term already used by other regulators) ... David Barr, an FDIC spokesman, said that the traditional cease-and-desist order will be issued to any banks that refuse to stipulate and instead seek an administrative ... http://myprops.org/content/Meredith-Whitney-Expects-Double-Dip-Recession-FDIC-dumps-Cease-Desist/ Mon, 16 Nov 2009 21:10:52 GMT Note: this is not seasonally adjusted. There is a very distinct seasonal pattern for imports, but not for exports. Sometimes port traffic gives us an early hint of changes in the trade deficit. The following graph shows the loaded inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). Although containers tell us nothing about value, container traffic does give us an idea of the volume of goods being ... http://myprops.org/content/LA-Area-Port-Traffic-in-October/ Mon, 16 Nov 2009 19:57:27 GMT Here is a live video of Bernanke at the Economic Club of NY Here is the CNBC feed. Prepared Speech: On the Outlook for the Economy and Policy How the economy will evolve in 2010 and beyond is less certain. On the one hand, those who see further weakness or even a relapse into recession next year point out that some of the sources of the recent pickup--including a reduced pace of inventory liquidation and limited-time policies such as the "cash for clunkers" program--are likely to ... http://myprops.org/content/Fed-Chairman-Ben-Bernanke-at-Economic-Club-of-NY/ Mon, 16 Nov 2009 17:59:16 GMT The Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales report from the Census Bureau today showed inventories are still declining. Click on graph for larger image in new window. The Census Bureau reported: Manufacturers' and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,303.4 billion, down 0.4 percent (±0.1%) from August 2009 and down 13.4 percent (±0.3%) from September 2008. The total business ... http://myprops.org/content/Business-Inventories-Decline-in-September/ Mon, 16 Nov 2009 15:46:02 GMT On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 1.4% from September to October (seasonally adjusted), and sales are off 1.7% from October 2008. Excluding auto sales and parts, retail sales rose 0.2% in October. The increase in October was mostly a rebound from the decline in September. Click on graph for larger image in new window. This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). This shows that retail sales fell off a ... http://myprops.org/content/Retail-Sales-Increase-in-October/ Mon, 16 Nov 2009 14:05:57 GMT From Reuters: Stronger Yuan Needed for Global Rebalancing: IMF Chief IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said ... [China needs to increase emphasis on domestic demand], especially private consumption ... "A stronger currency is part of the package of necessary reforms," he said. "Allowing the renminbi (yuan) and other Asian currencies to rise would help increase the purchasing power of households, raise the labour share of income, and provide the right incentives to ... http://myprops.org/content/IMF-China-Needs-Stronger-Currency/ Mon, 16 Nov 2009 05:44:40 GMT On Friday I posted a graph showing the historical relationship between housing starts and the unemployment rate (repeated as the 2nd graph below). The graph shows that housing leads the economy both into and out of recessions, and the unemployment rate lags housing by about 12 to 18 months. It appears that housing starts bottomed earlier this year, however I don't think we will see a sharp recovery in housing this time - and I also think unemployment will remain high throughout 2010. As I ... http://myprops.org/content/Housing-Starts-and-Vacant-Units-No-V-Shaped-Recovery/ Mon, 16 Nov 2009 01:32:59 GMT "There's no hard and fast number, but ... I have in mind something like $300 Billion, you could do quite a lot that's actually targeted on jobs." Professor Paul Krugman, Nov 12, 2009 In the following interview, with Alison van Diggelen of Fresh Dialogues, Paul Krugman offers some suggestions for addressing the high unemployment rate (transcript here): And two pieces - the first from the NY Times, and the second from Krugman's blog. From Krugman in the NY Times: Free to Lose ... http://myprops.org/content/Krugman-Suggests-300-Billion-Jobs-Program/ Sun, 15 Nov 2009 21:03:57 GMT From Bloomberg: China's Liu Says U.S. Rates Cause Dollar Speculation "The continuous depreciation in the dollar, and the U.S. government's indication, that in order to resume growth and maintain public confidence, it basically won't raise interest rates for the coming 12 to 18 months, has led to massive dollar arbitrage speculation," [Liu Mingkang, chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission said] ... Liu said this has "seriously affected global asset prices, fuelled speculation in ... http://myprops.org/content/China-Banking-Regulator-U.S.-Policy-Fueling-Asset-Speculation/ Sun, 15 Nov 2009 14:55:20 GMT In his comments with the Unofficial Problem Bank list, surferdude808 noted that the Federal Reserve issued a Prompt Corrective Action order against Orion Bank on Thursday. Orion was seized the following day by the FDIC. The PCA order makes for interesting reading (Note: Stephen at FUMU Finance wrote to me about this - here is Stephen's post with some background details: Orion Bank - Management's master plan!). From the PCA: In order to improve its management, the Bank must dismiss Jerry ... http://myprops.org/content/Orion-Bank-CEO-Had-a-Plan-/ Sun, 15 Nov 2009 04:14:40 GMT Gretchen Morgenson at the NY Times writes about the tax loss carry-forward "gift" for home builders in the recently signed "Worker, Homeownership and Business Assistance Act of 2009": Home Builders (You Heard That Right) Get a Gift The Center for Responsive Politics reports that through Oct. 26 of this year, home builders paid $6 million to their lobbyists. ... Much of this year's lobbying expenditures were focused on arguing for the tax loss carry-forward, documents ... http://myprops.org/content/Home-Builders-Return-on-Lobbying/ Sun, 15 Nov 2009 00:50:34 GMT From Barron's: Sam Zell: Too Soon for Dancing Sam Zell ... said ... that the time isn't ripe because owners of office, retail and warehouse properties and their lenders are living in a dream world, believing that property prices will recover and vacancies will drop. ... "Everybody is waiting for the Grave Dancer to come in, but at this point property owners won't tango," he told a gathering of prominent investors in downtown Chicago . When Zell does start buying, he said, hotels ... http://myprops.org/content/Zell-on-CRE-Too-Soon-for-Grave-Dancing/ Sat, 14 Nov 2009 22:18:01 GMT This is amusing ... From the Telegraph: FSA treats mortgage lenders like 'drug dealers', says CML chief Hitting back at the idea that lenders are "evil" and reckless, [Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) chief] Matthew Wyles said the industry should be allowed to treat its customers as adults, respecting their right to make their own decisions. He said: "I have a sneaking suspicion that it's the way that regulators see consumers - as wanton children who have a tendency to want what isn't ... http://myprops.org/content/U.K.-Mortgage-Lenders-Dont-Treat-Us-like-Drug-Dealers/ Sat, 14 Nov 2009 14:17:51 GMT When Pacific National Bank of San Clemente was closed by regulators Friday, the TARP lost $4.12 million (ht Matt Padilla). Last week the TARP lost $298.7 when San Francisco-based United Commercial Bank (UCBH Holdings) failed. It looks like TARP losses are becoming a trend ... and, oh, the cost to the FDIC Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) for the three bank failures today is estimated to be almost $1 billion. Here is the updated Unofficial Problem Bank List And the quote of the day via the ... http://myprops.org/content/More-Losses-for-TARP/ Sat, 14 Nov 2009 05:41:58 GMT Note: This was before the three FDIC bank seizures today. This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks. Changes and comments from surferdude808: The Unofficial Problem Bank List changed by a net two institutions this week to 507. Seven institutions with assets of $1.6 billion were added to the list. The largest addition is First Federal Bank of North Florida, Palatka, FL ($444 million). The OCC did not release its actions for October today so we will look for those additions next ... http://myprops.org/content/Unofficial-Problem-Bank-List-increases-to-507/ Sat, 14 Nov 2009 02:58:27 GMT From the FDIC: Sunwest Bank, Tustin, California, Assumes All of the Deposits of Pacific Coast National Bank, San Clemente, California Pacific Coast National Bank, San Clemente, California, was closed today by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ... As of August 31, 2009, Pacific Coast National Bank had total assets of $134.4 million and total deposits of approximately $130.9 million. ... The FDIC ... http://myprops.org/content/Bank-Failure-123-in-2009-Pacific-Coast-National-Bank-San-Clemente-CA/ Sat, 14 Nov 2009 01:23:18 GMT From the FDIC: IBERIABANK, Lafayette, Louisiana, Assumes All of the Deposits of Century Bank, Federal Savings Bank, Sarasota, Florida Century Bank, Federal Savings Bank, Sarasota, Florida, was closed today by the Office of Thrift Supervision, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ... As of October 31, 2009, Century Bank, FSB had total assets of $728 million and total deposits of approximately $631 million. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the ... http://myprops.org/content/Bank-Failures-121-122-Two-more-in-Florida/ Fri, 13 Nov 2009 23:38:02 GMT From the WSJ: State Finance Directors Warn of More Trouble Ahead "I looked as hard as I could at how states could declare bankruptcy," said Michael Genest, director of the California Department of Finance who is stepping down at the end of the year. "I literally looked at the federal constitution to see if there was a way for states to return to territory status." And on banks: From the Chicago Tribune: Amcore says regulators reject plan to raise capital (ht Doug) Last ... http://myprops.org/content/State-Budget-Quote-of-the-Day-and-more-Bank-Failure-Preview/ Fri, 13 Nov 2009 22:34:23 GMT A couple of banks in trouble ... From Reuters: US credit card issuer Advanta files for bankruptcy (ht jb) The company also said its Advanta Bank's capital is below regulatory requirements and that the bank could turned over to a Federal Deposit Insurance Corp receivership. Advanta said it decided not to fund the bank's capital shortfall to preserve value for other stakeholders. emphasis addedAdvanta bank has just under $3 billion in assets. And from SignonSanDiego: Imperial Capital ... http://myprops.org/content/Bank-Failure-Preview/ Fri, 13 Nov 2009 20:57:20 GMT From the NY Times: Euro Zone Officially Out of Recession ... [T]he euro area emerged from recession during the third quarter, helped largely by export growth and improved industrial production in its largest economy, Germany. The European Union's statistics agency, Eurostat, reported Friday that gross domestic product for the 16 countries using the single currency expanded by 0.4 percent from the second quarter, following five quarters of contraction. Against a year earlier, G.D.P. was still ... http://myprops.org/content/Euro-Zone-GDP-Grows-in-Q3/ Fri, 13 Nov 2009 16:48:42 GMT The Census Bureau reports: The ... total September exports of $132.0 billion and imports of $168.4 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $36.5 billion, up from $30.8 billion in August, revised. September exports were $3.7 billion more than August exports of $128.3 billion. September imports were $9.3 billion more than August imports of $159.1 billion. Click on graph for larger image. The first graph shows the monthly U.S. exports and imports in dollars through September ... http://myprops.org/content/Trade-Deficit-Increases-in-September/ Fri, 13 Nov 2009 14:17:42 GMT Earlier this week I mentioned a possible "upside surprise" for GDP in 2010: With unemployment above 10%, there will be significant political pressure for another stimulus package - especially if the economy starts to slow in the first half of 2010. This next package could be several hundred billion (maybe $500 billion) and could increase GDP growth in 2010 above my forecast. From The Hill: Senator Reid tees up 2010 jobs bill Senate Democrats will take up a new job-creation bill in the ... http://myprops.org/content/The-Next-Stimulus-Package/ Fri, 13 Nov 2009 06:12:35 GMT From Bloomberg: Barofsky Says TARP 'Almost Certainly' Will Bring Loss (ht jb)Neil Barofsky ... said the [TARP] will "almost certainly" result in a loss to U.S. taxpayers. ... "Tens of billions of dollars are likely to be lost on the automotive bailout," Barofsky said. In addition, some banks that received TARP money are failing, so the aid they received will be wiped out. The TARP lost $2.33 billion on CIT and another $299 billion on the failure of UCBH Holdings (United Commercial Bank) last ... http://myprops.org/content/TARP-Inspector-General-Taxpayers-to-suffer-Losses/ Fri, 13 Nov 2009 01:54:04 GMT From the Association of American Railroads: Rail Time IndicatorsIn October 2009, U.S. freight railroads originated 1,100,714 carloads, an average of 275,179 carloads per week. That's down 15.3% from October 2008 (when the weekly average was 324,836 carloads) and down 0.3% from September 2009 (when the weekly average was 276,137 carloads). Average weekly carloads have now declined for two straight months. The following graph from the AAR shows average weekly carloads in the U.S. Click on graph ... http://myprops.org/content/Rail-Traffic-Declines-Slightly-in-November/ Thu, 12 Nov 2009 23:11:15 GMT The FHA commented on the damage caused by the Downpayment Assistance Programs (DAPs) today. These DAPs circumvented the FHA down payment requirements by having the seller funnel the "down payment" to the buyer through a "charity" (for a small fee of course). The FHA attempted to stop this practice, but thanks to Congress, the DAPs led to billions of losses: FHA was also adversely selected from 2000 through 2008 because it was the only guarantor willing to accept loans using ... http://myprops.org/content/FHA-on-DAPs-Too-many-homeowners-not-equipped-for-home-ownership/ Thu, 12 Nov 2009 22:13:03 GMT From HotelNewsNow.com: Boston leads RevPAR gains in STR weekly numbers Overall, in year-over-year measurements, the industry's occupancy fell 3.6 percent to 54.8 percent, average daily rate dropped 8.5 percent US$97.19, and RevPAR decreased 11.8 percent to US$53.29. Click on graph for larger image in new window. This graph shows the occupancy rate by week for each of the last four years (2006 through 2009 labeled by start of month). Notes: the scale doesn't start at zero to better show the ... http://myprops.org/content/Hotel-RevPAR-off-11.8-Percent/ Thu, 12 Nov 2009 18:41:21 GMT From David Streitfeld at the NY Times: Housing Agency Says Cash Reserves Are Down Sharply The Federal Housing Administration said Thursday morning that its cash reserves had dwindled significantly in the last year after a record drop in home prices. ... The results of the F.H.A.'s annual audit showed the agency's capital reserves to be 0.53 percent, far under the 2 percent minimum mandated by Congress. A year ago, the capital reserves were 3 percent.From the FHA: Annual Actuarial Study Shows ... http://myprops.org/content/FHA-Reserves-Fall-Sharply-Well-Below-Required-Minimum/ Thu, 12 Nov 2009 16:46:23 GMT The MBA reports: Mortgage Refinance Applications Increase, Purchase Applications at Nine Year LowThe Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 3.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. ... The Refinance Index increased 11.3 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 11.7 percent from one week earlier. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index is at its lowest level since December ... http://myprops.org/content/MBA-Purchase-Applications-Fall-to-Nine-Year-Low/ Thu, 12 Nov 2009 14:35:39 GMT The DOL reports weekly unemployment insurance claims decreased to 502,000:In the week ending Nov. 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 502,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 514,000. [revised from 512,000] The 4-week moving average was 519,750, a decrease of 4,500 from the previous week's revised average of 524,250. ... The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Oct. 31 was 5,631,000, a ... http://myprops.org/content/Weekly-Initial-Unemployment-Claims-502-Thousand/ Thu, 12 Nov 2009 14:07:09 GMT Yesterday I posted some excerpt from Freddie Mac's 10-Q: We believe that several of our mortgage insurance counterparties are at risk of falling out of compliance with regulatory capital requirements, which may result in regulatory actions that could threaten our ability to receive future claims payments, and negatively impact our access to mortgage insurance for high LTV loans. The WSJ has more tonight, including the risks to Fannie Mae: Fannie, Freddie Warn on More Losses Fannie Mae has about ... http://myprops.org/content/Fannie-Freddie-Counterparty-Risk-and-More/ Thu, 12 Nov 2009 03:42:01 GMT From The Times: The worst is over, says Bank of England Governor Better-than-expected unemployment figures and a rosier growth forecast from the Bank of England raised hopes yesterday that Britain was beginning to claw its way towards economic recovery. ... Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank, said Britain had "only just started along the road to recovery" and that it would be "a long hard haul" back to regain the level of activity of two years ago before the financial crisis hit. The following ... http://myprops.org/content/BofEs-Mervyn-King-Worst-Over-Long-hard-haul-Ahead/ Thu, 12 Nov 2009 01:04:39 GMT Ruth Simon at the WSJ has some details on permanent modifications: Mortgage Program Gathers Steam After Slow Start The administration won't release figures on completed modifications until December, but so far it appears that very few trial modifications are becoming permanent, often because of a lack of documentation. ... J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. said last week that more than 92,000 of its customers have made at least three trial payments under the program, but just 26% of them had ... http://myprops.org/content/WSJ-on-Permanent-Modifications/ Wed, 11 Nov 2009 21:54:45 GMT Here is an unsolicited Principal Reduction Loan Modification (pdf) offer from BofA. (ht Dwight) A few background details: The homeowner bought the house in May 2005 for $420,000. The homeowner refinanced in March 2006. This included a negatively amortizing adjustable rate mortgage (NegAM ARM) first with BofA for $392,000, and a 2nd with IndyMac for $49,000. (Total = $441,000) For personal reasons, the homeowner was no longer able to make the payment, and is now delinquent. They were ... http://myprops.org/content/Unsolicited-Principal-Reduction-Offer-from-BofA/ Wed, 11 Nov 2009 20:32:30 GMT As I've noted several times, my general outlook is for GDP growth to be decent in Q4 (similar to Q3) and for sluggish and choppy GDP growth in 2010. I've been asked to list some possible upside surprises, and downside risks, to this forecast. Possible Upside Surprises: Consumer spending. One of the key reasons I think growth will be sluggish in 2010 is because I expect the personal saving rate to increase as households rebuild their balance sheets and reduce their debt burden. But you ... http://myprops.org/content/Economic-Outlook-Possible-Upside-Surprises-Downside-Risks/ Wed, 11 Nov 2009 19:06:08 GMT Last week the FHA released a temporary guidance that relaxed some of the rules for condominiums. From the FHA: Temporary Guidance for Condominium Policy The Miami Herald has the key points: FHA moves to boost condo market. Increase from 30 percent to 50 percent the number of units in a project that can be financed with FHA loans. FHA, however, will make exceptions, even allowing up to 100 percent, when buildings meet an additional set of more stringent criteria. . Require at least 50 ... http://myprops.org/content/FHA-Temporarily-Relaxes-Condo-Rules/ Wed, 11 Nov 2009 16:48:20 GMT Matt Padilla at the O.C. Register writes: Foreclosure notices hit record 8,800 Click on graph for larger image in new window. Graph from O.C. Register. ForeclosureRadar.com reports that outstanding foreclosure auction notices in Orange County rose to 8,895 at the end of September, the highest in this housing downturn and probably the highest ever. September's total was up 5% from August and 90% from a year ago. Padilla provides a second graph (see his article) of 90 day ... http://myprops.org/content/Orange-County-Foreclosure-Notices-Hit-Record-High/ Wed, 11 Nov 2009 14:22:03 GMT Buried in the California Controller's November analysis is a guest article: Overview of the Commercial Property and Capital Markets with Implications for the State of California by Dr. Randall Zisler. (ht picosec) Here are some excerpts: Whereas excessive and imprudent leverage fed the bubble, deleveraging not only popped the bubble, but, in the process, destroyed record amounts of equity and debt. Most deals financed with high leverage from 2005 to the present are under water. The equity is ... http://myprops.org/content/California-Controller-Overview-of-the-Commercial-Property-Markets/ Wed, 11 Nov 2009 04:01:29 GMT "[L]ooking into 2010 and perhaps to 2011, the most likely outcome is for growth to be suboptimal, unemployment to remain a vexing problem and inflation to remain subdued." Dallas Fed President Richard FisherAnd a little more Fed Speak ... (note: Fisher's speeches are always colorful). From Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher: The Current State of the Economy and a Look to the Future Now, I've often thought that economic forecasters seem to be cursed-or maybe blessed, I suppose, ... http://myprops.org/content/Feds-Fisher-Suboptimal-Growth-in-2010-Perhaps-2011/ Wed, 11 Nov 2009 01:26:53 GMT From Reuters: Treasury says 650,000 in trial home loan workouts [The Treasury Department] said there were 650,994 active trial modifications through October under President Barack Obama's plan to help the housing market. That was up from 487,081 ... participating through September. The Treasury did not release figures for trial modifications that have been made permanent.The key number - permanent modifications - was not released. As of Sept 1st, the Obama plan had produced only 1,711 ... http://myprops.org/content/Loan-Modifications-Key-Numbers-not-Released/ Tue, 10 Nov 2009 20:40:44 GMT From the Ambac 10-Q: While management believes that Ambac will have sufficient liquidity to satisfy its needs through the second quarter of 2011, no guarantee can be given that it will be able to pay all of its operating expenses and debt service obligations thereafter, including maturing principal in the amount of $143,000 in August 2011. In addition, it is possible its liquidity may run out prior to the second quarter of 2011. Ambac is developing strategies to address its liquidity needs; such ... http://myprops.org/content/Counterparty-Risk-The-Mortgage-Insurers/ Tue, 10 Nov 2009 19:25:48 GMT Lately I've been leaning against the view of a "V shaped" recovery. I think that growth will be decent in the second half of 2009, but growth will be sluggish in 2010. San Francisco Fed President Dr. Yellen has a similar view - from her speech this morning: The Outlook for the Economy and Real Estate The big issue is how strong the upturn will be. With such enormous reservoirs of slack in the form of high unemployment and idle productive capacity, we need a strong rebound to put unemployed ... http://myprops.org/content/Feds-Yellen-on-the-Economic-Outlook/ Tue, 10 Nov 2009 17:07:45 GMT From Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart: Economic Recovery, Small Business, and the Challenge of Commercial Real Estate [H]ow serious is the CRE problem for the financial system and the broad economy? First, let me provide some overview comments: While the CRE problem is serious for parts of the banking industry, I don't believe it poses a broad risk to the financial system. Compared with residential real estate, the size of the CRE debt market is smaller, and the exposure is more ... http://myprops.org/content/Feds-Lockhart-on-CRE-and-Small-Business/ Tue, 10 Nov 2009 14:59:04 GMT According to an article in the LA Times, it appears the 2009 holiday season will be worse than 2008 for the travel industry: Airlines, hotels face bleak holidays According to the Auto Club, 46% of those surveyed said they planned to spend the same amount on holiday travel as they did last year, while 36% planned to spend less. Only 18% planned to spend more.The article also mentions a forecast for air travel: ATA Expects 4 Percent Decline in Air Travel Over 12-Day Thanksgiving Holiday Period The ... http://myprops.org/content/Tough-Times-for-the-Travel-Industry/ Tue, 10 Nov 2009 14:31:32 GMT Floyd Norris at the NY Times asks: Did Unemployment Really Rise? The economic reactions over the weekend to Friday's employment report all started from the assumption that things grew much worse in October. The unemployment rate leaped to 10.2 percent from 9.8 percent. Another 190,000 jobs vanished. Actually, none of that happened. In reality, the government report says unemployment rates remained steady at 9.5 percent. And the number of jobs actually rose, by 80,000. ... The ... http://myprops.org/content/Employment-and-the-Seasonal-Adjustment/ Tue, 10 Nov 2009 05:49:42 GMT Former Fed Governor Frederic Mishkin writes in the Financial Times: Not all bubbles present a risk to the economy There is increasing concern that we may be experiencing another round of asset-price bubbles that could pose great danger to the economy. Does this danger provide a case for the US Federal Reserve to exit from its zero-interest-rate policy sooner rather than later, as many commentators have suggested? The answer is no. excerpted with permissionMishkin outlines two different types of ... http://myprops.org/content/Mishkin-Not-all-bubbles-the-same/ Tue, 10 Nov 2009 02:55:35 GMT From the NY Times: Paterson Paints Grim Picture of N.Y. Budget Crisis "We stand on the brink of a financial challenge of unprecedented magnitude in the history of this state," Mr. Paterson told lawmakers as he warned that New York was rapidly running out of cash ... While the state faces a deficit of more than $3 billion for the remaining four and a half months of this fiscal year, the greater worry among state officials are the unprecedented deficits the state faces in 2011 and 2012, ... http://myprops.org/content/NY-Governor-Unprecedented-financial-challenge/ Mon, 09 Nov 2009 23:44:34 GMT The following graph shows the maximum number of net jobs lost after the end of several official recessions (both in numbers and as a percent of peak employment prior to the start of the recession). Note: The last two columns assume the 2007 recession officially ended in June 2009 or in July 2009. Click on graph for larger image in new window. Even if the economy started adding jobs in November (very unlikely), the 2009 recovery would already be one of weakest for job creation. The ... http://myprops.org/content/The-2009-Jobless-Recovery/ Mon, 09 Nov 2009 16:52:33 GMT St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told the Financial Times that uncertainty about the inflation outlook is the most since 1980. From the Financial Times: Uncertainty 'high' over inflation outlook "For 2009, in particular, and maybe a little bit into 2010, you have to worry about getting out of the recession, establishing your recovery, making sure the recovery has really taken hold. And then, at the appropriate time, when things are all going forward, you have to switch gears and watch ... http://myprops.org/content/Feds-Bullard-Inflation-Outlook-Uncertain/ Mon, 09 Nov 2009 14:08:02 GMT A quote from a conference this weekend, from the NY Times: "There are families not eating at the end of the month," said Stephen Quinn, executive vice president and chief marketing officer at Wal-Mart Stores, and "literally lining up at midnight" at Wal-Mart stores waiting to buy food when paychecks or government checks land in their accounts. http://myprops.org/content/WalMart-Quote-of-the-Night/ Mon, 09 Nov 2009 05:13:54 GMT Here is some more on a theme we've been discussing ... From Carolyn Said at the San Francisco Chronicle: Default notices rising in upper echelon ZIPs (ht Hymn) In upscale communities such as Los Altos, Greenbrae and Alamo, where median prices top $1 million, about twice as many households received default notices from January to September as in the same period in 2008, according to recorders' office data compiled by MDA DataQuick, a San Diego real estate research firm. The same is true for ... http://myprops.org/content/Default-Notices-Movin-on-Up/ Mon, 09 Nov 2009 02:10:22 GMT On Monday, the Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices for October will probably be released. This survey was available for the FOMC meeting last week, and tight lending standards and weak loan demand is probably one of the reasons the FOMC expects economic activity "to remain weak for a time". This will also be a busy week for Fed Speak. We might get somewhat different economic outlooks on Tuesday from San Francisco Fed President Dr. Janet ... http://myprops.org/content/Summary-and-a-Look-Ahead/ Sun, 08 Nov 2009 21:14:58 GMT CR Note: This is a guest post from albrt. A great deal has been written in the last year or so about cases in which a court has denied a lender the right to foreclose on a mortgaged house. Lately many of the decisions have involved MERS, an acronym for the nationwide Mortgage Electronic Registration Systems, Inc. This post focuses on two August decisions in which the courts decided MERS should be able to foreclose, despite vigorous legal efforts by the homeowners. Bucci vs. Lehman ... http://myprops.org/content/Putting-the-MERS-Controversies-in-Perspective/ Sun, 08 Nov 2009 17:18:04 GMT Matt Padilla has an interesting chart on REOs and delinquent loans in Orange County, California: Banks hold few foreclosures. The chart shows the number of REOs (bank owned real estate) has dropped sharply while 90+ day delinquencies continue to increase. Although this chart is for Orange County, we are seeing the same dynamics in many areas across the county (declining REOs, rising delinquency rates). Sam Khater, senior economist with First American CoreLogic gave Matt his view of why ... http://myprops.org/content/First-American-CoreLogic-Economist-Decline-in-Distressed-Inventory-a-Mirage/ Sun, 08 Nov 2009 14:56:14 GMT Brian Wargo writes at the Las Vegas Sun: Construction nears standstill The state bird of Nevada, the construction crane, is on the endangered species list. ... there are nine commercial projects of consequence under construction off from the Strip in Southern Nevada. Once most of those projects wind down early next year, there's not much in the pipeline and development will essentially cease ... the long-range outlook ... is that there won't be another major casino project built on the Strip ... http://myprops.org/content/Nevada-Construction-Crane-Endangered-species/ Sun, 08 Nov 2009 01:02:19 GMT From the Independent: Personal insolvencies rise to new record as unemployment bites More people than ever before were declared insolvent in England and Wales during the third quarter of the year. Figures released by the Insolvency Service yesterday reveal that there were 35,242 personal insolvencies over the three months to the end of September, up by 28 per cent on the same period of 2008 ... There was a decrease in corporate insolvencies in the U.K. For the most recent stats in the U.S., ... http://myprops.org/content/U.K.-Record-35-Thousand-People-Declared-Insolvent-in-Q3/ Sat, 07 Nov 2009 22:37:04 GMT From the LA Times: United Commercial Bank is shut down, sold to East West Bancorp Toppled by loan losses and misstated financial reports, San Francisco's United Commercial Bank was shut down by regulators Friday night ... United Commercial's collapse may cause a greater-than-usual stir because a year ago the federal government invested $299 million in bailout funds in the bank in exchange for preferred stock, which was made worthless by the failure. In addition, the FDIC said the collapse ... http://myprops.org/content/TARP-Loses-299-million-Investment-in-United-Commercial-Bank/ Sat, 07 Nov 2009 18:32:22 GMT From The Telegraph: Bank of England says financiers are fuelling an economic 'doom loop' On the eve of the G20 meeting of finance ministers in Scotland, Andy Haldane, the Bank's executive director for financial stability warned that the relationship between the state and banks represents a "doom loop" which will keep inflicting crises on the public unless arrested. The warning, which follows Governor Mervyn King's call for investment banks to be split from their high street wings, ... http://myprops.org/content/U.K.-Bank-of-England-Warns-of-Doom-Loop/ Sat, 07 Nov 2009 14:25:35 GMT From David Leonhardt at the NY Times: Broader Measure of Unemployment Stands at 17.5% Excerpts: Officially, the Labor Department's broad measure of unemployment goes back only to 1994. But early this year, with the help of economists at the department, The New York Times created a version that estimates it going back to 1970. ... If statistics went back so far, the measure would almost certainly be at its highest level since the Great Depression. In all, more than one out of every six ... http://myprops.org/content/NY-Times-Unemployment-Measure-U-6-Highest-Since-Great-Depression/ Sat, 07 Nov 2009 05:15:31 GMT From the FDIC: East West Bank, Pasadena, California Assumes All the Deposits of United Commercial Bank, San Francisco, California United Commercial Bank, San Francisco, California, was closed today by the California Department of Financial Institutions, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ... As of October 23, 2009, United Commercial Bank had total assets of $11.2 billion and total deposits of approximately $7.5 billion. ... The FDIC estimates that ... http://myprops.org/content/Bank-Failure-120-United-Commercial-Bank-San-Francisco-California/ Sat, 07 Nov 2009 03:08:53 GMT Note: This was before the FDIC seized four banks today. This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks. Changes and comments from surferdude808: The steady climb in members on the Unofficial Problem Bank list continued this week despite the failure of the multi-bank holding company FBOP Corporation, which took down 9 banks including 5 banks with aggregate assets of $17.5 billion that were on the Unofficial Problem Bank List. There were 10 additions this week, which pushes the total number ... http://myprops.org/content/Unofficial-Problem-Bank-List-Grows-to-505/ Sat, 07 Nov 2009 02:51:59 GMT Whats a "Prosperan"? A breakfast food, car or band? Answer: money pit Looming Gateway Arch Symbol of pioneer spirit Their bank now a ghost. by Soylent Green is People From the FDIC: Alerus Financial, National Association, Grand Forks, North Dakota, Assumes All of the Deposits of Prosperan Bank, Oakdale, MinnesotaProsperan Bank, Oakdale, Minnesota, was closed today by the Minnesota Department of Commerce, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as ... http://myprops.org/content/Bank-Failures-118-119-Banks-in-Minnesota-Missouri/ Sat, 07 Nov 2009 00:43:03 GMT Motor City crash. Home Federal has spun out. Bagholders totaled by Soylent Green is People From the FDIC: Liberty Bank and Trust Company, New Orleans, Louisiana, Assumes All of the Deposits of Home Federal Savings Bank, Detroit, Michigan Home Federal Savings Bank, Detroit, Michigan, was closed today by the Office of Thrift Supervision, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ... As of September 24, 2009, Home Federal Savings Bank had total assets of ... http://myprops.org/content/Bank-Failure-117-Home-Federal-Savings-Bank-Detroit-Michigan/ Fri, 06 Nov 2009 23:37:34 GMT From the FDIC: Ameris Bank, Moultrie, Georgia, Assumes All of the Deposits of United Security Bank, Sparta, Georgia United Security Bank, Sparta, Georgia, was closed today by the Georgia Department of Banking and Finance, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ... As of September 14, 2009, United Security Bank had total assets of $157 million and total deposits of approximately $150 million. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit ... http://myprops.org/content/Bank-Failure-116-United-Security-Bank-Sparta-Georgia/ Fri, 06 Nov 2009 22:16:59 GMT From MarketWatch: Consumer debt drops for record 8th straight month Outstanding consumer debt fell at a 7.2% annual rate in September, the eighth consecutive decline, the Federal Reserve reported Friday. Click on graph for larger image in new window. This graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in consumer credit. Consumer credit is off 4.7% over the last 12 months - and falling fast. The previous record YoY decline was 1.9% in 1991. Here is the Fed report: Consumer Credit Consumer ... http://myprops.org/content/Consumer-Credit-Declines-Sharply-in-September/ Fri, 06 Nov 2009 20:31:49 GMT From Carolyn Said at the San Francisco Chronicle: Gloomy times for commercial real estate Values will plunge, vacancies will rise and rents will decrease across all types of commercial property before the market hits bottom in 2010, according to the "Emerging Trends in Real Estate" forecast from the Urban Land Institute and PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. ... No quick recovery is in store, the report said. "2010 looks like an unavoidable bloodbath for a multitude of 'zombie' ... http://myprops.org/content/CRE-Report-Gloomy-Times/ Fri, 06 Nov 2009 19:36:26 GMT The [un]employment report headline numbers were ugly, but the internals are even less encouraging ... Employment-Population Ratio Click on graph for larger image in new window. This graph shows the employment-population ratio; this is the ratio of employed Americans to the adult population. Note: the graph doesn't start at zero to better show the change. The general upward trend from the early '60s was mostly due to women entering the workforce. This measure fell in October to ... http://myprops.org/content/Employment-Population-Ratio-Record-Part-Time-Workers-Weak-Holiday-Hiring/ Fri, 06 Nov 2009 14:56:47 GMT From the BLS: The unemployment rate rose from 9.8 to 10.2 percent in October, and nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline (-190,000), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The largest job losses over the month were in construction, manufacturing, and retail trade. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the unemployment rate and the year over year change in employment vs. recessions. Nonfarm payrolls decreased by 190,000 in October. The economy has lost ... http://myprops.org/content/Employment-Report-190K-Jobs-Lost-10.2-percent-Unemployment-Rate/ Fri, 06 Nov 2009 14:03:29 GMT See the poll in the right sidebar ... Catherine Rampell at the NY Times Economix offers a Jobs Report Preview Ms. Rampell suggests three things to look for:1) The unemployment rate may hit 10 percent. ... 2) Job losses continue to mount, but more slowly. ... 3) Hours worked stagnate. There will be many more interesting details such as the employment-population ratio, part time workers, how many people are unemployed more than 26 weeks (for unemployment benefits), and how many part time ... http://myprops.org/content/Employment-Report-Preview-975630/ Fri, 06 Nov 2009 06:02:52 GMT