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Stephen S. Roach: US is facing double bubble trouble - property and credit bubbles peaked at 78% of GDP - 6 times the size of the tech bubble
This Link is located in the Public Channel Housing Bubble and Bear Links.
 Posted by ian 2 years 7 days ago (chinadaily.com.cn).  Views: 551
Tags: housing bubble
Related Tags: credit crisis  gold  wall street  peter schiff  economics  inflation  banks  
If the economy of the United States was entering a standard cyclical downturn, there would be good reason to believe that a timely counter-cyclical stimulus like that devised by Washington would be effective. But this is not a standard cyclical downturn. It is a post-bubble recession.

The US is now going through its second post-bubble downturn in seven years. Yet this one stands in sharp contrast to the post-bubble shakeout in the stock market during 2000 and 2001. Back then, there was a collapse in business capital spending, a sector that peaked at only 13 percent of real gross domestic product.

The current recession has been set off by the simultaneous bursting of property and credit bubbles. The unwinding of these excesses is likely to exact a lasting toll on both homebuilders and American consumers. Those two economic sectors collectively peaked at 78 percent of gross domestic product, or fully six times the share of the sector that pushed the country into recession seven years ago.

For asset-dependent, bubble-prone economies, a cyclical recovery - even when assisted by aggressive monetary and fiscal accommodation - is not a given.

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ian said
2 years 7 days ago
 
"6 times the size of the tech bubble" is a very important point

I have been trying to make this point to many people for quite a while (without much success). The tech bubble lead to almost an 80% decline in the Nasdaq and almost a 50% decline in the S&P 500; yet by any estimate (for example in paper wealth created) the housing bubble is at least 5 times the size of the tech bubble, and far more important for the everyday American. Where the S&P 500 will bottom is anyone's guess, but I believe at least 50% down from its peak.

-March 12, 2008
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Housing Bubble and Bear Links (1,486 Links)
Created by ian 2 years 344 days ago in Finance. Views: 12,620. Link Views: 417,644
Tags: housing bubble  investing  real estate  subprime  mortgage  finance  economics
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This channel was created on April 10, 2007, during the peak of the housing mania, to warn investors of the coming collapse in home prices. For quite some time we have warned investors to get out of U.S. stocks. This channel represents the best of the [More...]
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A history of home values
This Link is located in the Public Channel Housing Bubble and Bear Links.
 Posted by ian 2 years 251 days ago (myprops.org).  Views: 3,623
Tags: housing bubble
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Yale economist Robert J. Shiller created an index of American housing prices going back to 1890. It presents housing values in consistent terms over 116 years, factoring out the effects of inflation. Here's more information on the the biggest bubble [More...]
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Housing decline is 1/3 complete and will not bottom until 2012 or later
This Link is located in the Public Channel Housing Bubble and Bear Links.
 Posted by ian 1 year 248 days ago (myprops.org).  Views: 2,893
Tags: housing bubble  economics
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Cramer, you're wrong. Housing will not bottom until 2012 or later. So far you have called 3 bottoms in the stock market (one after the Fed cut rates by 125 bp in 8 days, one after the Bear Stearns bailout, and now one after the Housing Bill / SEC naked [More...]
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Market Value of Household Real Estate (graph)
This Link is located in the Public Channel Housing Bubble and Bear Links.
 Posted by ian 2 years 196 days ago (static.seekingalpha.com).  Views: 2,368
Tags: housing bubble
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Up about $10 trillion since the start of the bubble in 2000. The entire GDP of the United States is $13 trillion. The housing bubble is therefore many times bigger, in fake wealth created, than the tech stock bubble which ended badly in 2000.
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Real Estate Calculator - Home Prices After the Bubble
This Link is located in the Public Channel Housing Bubble and Bear Links.
 Posted by ian 298 days ago (re-calculator.com).  Views: 494
Tags: housing bubble  real estate
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Calculate the price of a house based on inflation, removing the bubble.
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Morgan Stanley Top Executive: ‘U.S. Homes Should Fall 30 Percent’
This Link is located in the Public Channel Housing Bubble and Bear Links.
 Posted by ian 2 years 63 days ago (moneynews.newsmax.com).  Views: 145
Tags: housing bubble
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Voracious, spendthrift consumers in the United States have driven the global economy out of balance, and only a massive repricing of U.S assets – including up to a 30 percent decline in home values – can fix it. That’s the view of Stephen Roach, [More...]
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America follows Japan's misguided path
This Link is located in the Public Channel Housing Bubble and Bear Links.
 Posted by ian 2 years 218 days ago (articles.moneycentral.msn.com).  Views: 393
Tags: housing bubble  japan
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Taking a big step back, the Bank of Japan acted foolishly throughout the 1980s, which caused that country to experience enormous real-estate and stock bubbles. Japan's stock bubble was really a residue of its real-estate bubble -- actually a credit [More...]
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Barney Frank in 2005: What housing bubble? <Video>
This Link is located in the Public Channel reddit business.
 Posted by MyPropsMonkey 293 days ago (youtube.com).  Views: 58
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This Link is located in the Public Channel TIME Magazine Top Business Stories.
 Posted by MyPropsMonkey 1 year 16 days ago (feedproxy.google.com).  Views: 82
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The economist called "Dr. Doom" after he predicted the housing bubble wouldspark a crisis says governments need to do more to stave off a "near-depression"
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The Economists Who Missed the Housing Bubble Are Coming After Your Social Security
This Link is located in the Public Channel reddit politics.
 Posted by MyPropsMonkey 1 year 32 days ago (huffingtonpost.com).  Views: 79
Tags: news  politics  election
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