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Stephen S. Roach: US is facing double bubble trouble - property and credit bubbles peaked at 78% of GDP - 6 times the size of the tech bubble
This Link is located in the Public Channel Housing Bubble and Bear Links.
Posted by ian 2 years 181 days ago (chinadaily.com.cn).  Views: 570
Tags: housing bubble
Related Tags: gold  credit crisis  peter schiff  inflation  wall street  economics  banks  
If the economy of the United States was entering a standard cyclical downturn, there would be good reason to believe that a timely counter-cyclical stimulus like that devised by Washington would be effective. But this is not a standard cyclical downturn. It is a post-bubble recession.

The US is now going through its second post-bubble downturn in seven years. Yet this one stands in sharp contrast to the post-bubble shakeout in the stock market during 2000 and 2001. Back then, there was a collapse in business capital spending, a sector that peaked at only 13 percent of real gross domestic product.

The current recession has been set off by the simultaneous bursting of property and credit bubbles. The unwinding of these excesses is likely to exact a lasting toll on both homebuilders and American consumers. Those two economic sectors collectively peaked at 78 percent of gross domestic product, or fully six times the share of the sector that pushed the country into recession seven years ago.

For asset-dependent, bubble-prone economies, a cyclical recovery - even when assisted by aggressive monetary and fiscal accommodation - is not a given.



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Comments (1)
ian said
2 years 180 days ago
 
"6 times the size of the tech bubble" is a very important point

I have been trying to make this point to many people for quite a while (without much success). The tech bubble lead to almost an 80% decline in the Nasdaq and almost a 50% decline in the S&P 500; yet by any estimate (for example in paper wealth created) the housing bubble is at least 5 times the size of the tech bubble, and far more important for the everyday American. Where the S&P 500 will bottom is anyone's guess, but I believe at least 50% down from its peak.

-March 12, 2008

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Created by ian 3 years 152 days ago in Finance. Views: 13,491. Link Views: 452,349
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Posted by ian 3 years 60 days ago (myprops.org).  Views: 3,957
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This Link is located in the Public Channel Housing Bubble and Bear Links.
Posted by ian 2 years 57 days ago (myprops.org).  Views: 3,121
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Posted by ian 3 years 5 days ago (static.seekingalpha.com).  Views: 2,527
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Up about $10 trillion since the start of the bubble in 2000. The entire GDP of the United States is $13 trillion. The housing bubble is therefore many times bigger, in fake wealth created, than the tech stock bubble which ended badly in 2000.
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