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Today’s the day for gold bugs
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This Link is located in the Public Channel Contrarian Stock Market News and Views.
Posted by lucretius 17 days ago (contrarianprofits.com). Views: 7
Tags: stock market news contrarian investing financial ideas stock ideas |
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Baltimore (TFN): Today’s the day. If you have ever hunted for undersea gold, you likely know Mel Fisher’s famous mantra. The great shipwreck hunter used the line thousands of times before it became the undeniable truth on the day he uncovered the “Atocha mother lode.”
While today’s record-breaking surge in gold prices is not likely to create $450 million in newfound wealth for any singular investor, it is the day gold bugs have been waiting for.
Thanks to surprising news that India’s central bank shelled out some $6.7 billion to get its hands on 200 metric tons worth of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) gold stash, the bullion market is on fire today.
Why is this good news?
Several reasons. First, since India’s name is on the receipt, China will have to wait in line to get its gold from the IMF. It’s either that or tread ever so carefully into the volatile spot market.
You see, the IMF’s sale is nothing new. It announced months ago its plans to unload 403.3 metric tons of the golden precious metal into the market.
However, most investors thought China, with its desperate need to diversify its holding of American greenbacks, would be the chief buyer.
But today’s news proves otherwise. It turns out India is on a diversification spree of its own, desperate to hedge against any unfavorable moves in the American dollar.
With just $200 tons left, there is not much gold left for other nation’s to get their hands on. $7 billion worth of cash is nothing for a country like China that right now holds nearly a trillion dollars worth of reserves.
The market’s logic for sending prices higher today is simple supply and demand. With less surplus available from the IMF, countries looking to diversify will have to hit the spot market.
Higher demand equals higher prices.
I have been writing about China’s growing commodities carry trade for months now.
It is the process where Beijing (and now India, evidently) uses its pile of increasingly depreciating dollars to buy commodities. It then sits on the commodities for a bit and sells them at a premium in the domestic currency.
This phenomenon alone creates fantastic commodities market bullishness.
But for gold longs, the timing of today’s announcement from the IMF could not have been better. It meshes perfectly with the increasing volatile equities market.
Not only can gold bugs raise prices due to increased diversification demand, but they can also raise their asking price due to increased flight to safety.
With the American market looking weaker by the minute and unemployment just about ready to climb into double-digit territory, gold just may be the one asset worth more in six months than it is today.
While an intraday surge of nearly $25 may appear as a major move after the incremental adjustments we have seen over the past few weeks, it represents a mere 2% change in the assets value.
Let me tell you, there is a lot more where that came from.
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